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Betting secrets

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betting secrets

Read The Ultimate Sports Betting Secrets by A. B. Lawal with a free trial. Read millions of eBooks and audiobooks on the web, iPad, iPhone and Android. Sports Betting: 5 Secrets to Successfully Winning · 1. Understand Your Sports · 2. Go for Value in Sports Betting · 3. Consider New Betting Brands. Inside you'll find comprehensive analysis for all sixteen Week One games, plus a plethora of sports betting secrets, football handicapping. POLY CRYPTO NEWS

Ultimately betting at the right time can increase your chances of winning your NFL picks, college football picks and other sports picks. It is important to know that when you are making underdog NFL football picks as an example, you should try to make you're bet as late as possible. The public loves to go with the popular teams, which are usually the favorites. This can often push a line much higher than it should be. If most of the money is bet on the favorite, the sportsbook will need to make the line more attractive for the public to take the underdog.

The reason why sportsbooks do this is that they want there to be even money on both sides so they don't lose money. For example, lets say the Colts are playing the Raiders and the Colts are the favorite. In this example if most of the money were placed on the Colts, the sportsbook would lose money if the Colts win.

For this reason, the sportsbook would want to make the line more attractive for bettors to take the Raiders. Thus you can take advantage of the more favorable line if you wait as late as possible when making underdog NFL picks, college basketball picks and other sports predictions. Most sports bettors like to make their NFL football picks and sports picks on the favorites.

They feel more comfortable taking the favorites in part due to the fact that the favorite teams are usually the winning teams. When betting the favorite you should make your sports bets early. The sports betting public will often blindly throw money at the favorite forcing the bookie to move the line from 6. Generally the longer you wait to make your bet the higher the number gets.

This can oftentimes cause the lines to become inflated. The difference between 6. There are other circumstances that can move a line. The line will change as players are injured or suspended. Of course sportsbooks take this things into consideration when making a line but experienced bettors can find an edge by researching and doing their homework. We get an answer thanks to the work of Lisandro Kaunitz at the University of Tokyo and a few pals, who have found a way to consistently make money from the online betting market for soccer.

But their work comes with a serious caveat. Kaunitz and co say that as soon as the bookies became aware of this success, they prevented the researchers from betting further. Gamblers have long toyed with schemes to beat the odds, but success is rare. They typically employ teams of statisticians to study historical data for a sport like soccer and then develop sophisticated models to determine the appropriate odds for each game.

Kaunitz and co say that as far as they know, nobody has been able to beat this system by developing superior statistical models. But despite this sophisticated approach, there is a weakness in the way bookmakers work. It has to do with the way they hedge their bets to protect against the possibility of large payouts.

For example, when two teams play a game of soccer, the bookmakers set odds of each team recording a win, loss, or draw. Sometimes large numbers of people can bet on a particular outcome for reasons that are unrelated to the odds—that team might be more popular than expected, for example. In that case, the bookmaker is set for a large payout if that outcome occurs.

So bookmakers can hedge their bets by offering more favorable odds on the opposite outcome. In this way, they attract bets that cover at least some of the potential losses. Kaunitz and co say this process also creates an opportunity for anybody able to spot it. The trick that the researchers have perfected is to devise a method that consistently spots odds favoring the punter rather than the bookie. Their method is straightforward.

They start by assuming that bookies themselves are good at setting odds and that the prices they offer are an accurate reflection of the real probabilities of a win, draw, or loss, plus their own margin. In that case, a good measure of these probabilities is a simple average of the odds offered by all the bookies—a kind of wisdom of the crowd.

This gives the average odds, which Kaunitz and co say is a remarkably accurate reflection of the real probabilities. Then it is a simple matter to analyze all the odds being offered and to find the outliers. Kaunitz and co next work out how favorable the outlying odds are. If they are good enough, then the bet should pay off, at least in the long run. They built a Web crawler that gathered the odds offered by online betting companies on soccer games around the world.

They calculated the average odds, found any outliers, and then worked out whether a bet would favor them or not. Before committing any real money, the researchers tested the idea on 10 years of historical data on the closing odds and results of , soccer games played between and This simulation paid out 44 percent of the time and delivered a yield of 3. An important question is whether this result could have been pure chance.

Could they simply have got lucky? So the team compared their results to 2, simulations in which they placed bets randomly on the same games. In that case, the bets paid out 39 percent of time at a return of That allowed the team to calculate the likelihood that their first result was a fluke.

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