Actuaries in sports betting
We work closely with gaming lawyers who help us avoid patent infringement when we design our games. So much of new games is borrowed from older games, and it can be challenging to tell what is in the public domain and what is copyrighted. We also work closely with our CFO and marketing experts to ensure that the performance of our games is meeting our net win targets.
What other backgrounds do gaming mathematicians come from? Most gaming mathematicians do not have an actuarial background. The vast majority of gaming mathematicians have degrees in math or statistics. While we recognize that the epicenter of gaming math currently is in Las Vegas, we have no plans to relocate there.
The Canadian Bank Note Company currently is growing its gaming portfolio both in Canada and internationally, which gives us an opportunity to be a part of this growth. What is your impression of the supply and demand of gaming professionals? There is an increasing demand for people with strong analytical skills, coding skills, and a passion for games.
In our opinion, actuaries are perfectly suited to lead the next generation of gaming innovation. Is it fun? It is incredibly fun! We sometimes forget that we are at work. We work with various games all day and we are encouraged to play at work. Daniel has three slot machines in his office! Is this a growth area?
Gaming is in a strong growth phase right now, especially internationally. The community of gaming mathematicians is small but growing. Three years ago, there were no gaming mathematicians in Ottawa, Canada, a city of about 1 million people. Is it easier or harder to describe what you do to people than when you described actuarial work? We find it easier to describe what we do as gaming actuaries than what we did when we were pension actuaries.
Most people have been exposed to gaming in some form, either through interacting with a slot machine or a table game at a casino, buying a lottery ticket, or playing card games at family gatherings. It was a bit harder to get people to relate to the work we did as pension actuaries. Most people find what we do fascinating. Do you manage anyone? When it comes to creating and validating the mathematical models for our games, we are currently a team of two, but we expect this to grow in the future.
However, we also contribute to other areas beyond math; for example, we provide input in the graphical design of our games, where we work with a larger team. Bradley is the chair of our Creative Committee, which determines which new game concepts will be implemented.
What continuing studies do you plan to focus on? We also plan to continue to expand our knowledge of probability and game theory. Are there any periodicals or other news that you have to keep up with in the gaming area?
There are many periodicals that keep us up to date on gaming. We both subscribe to Casino Journal. Yet, if you are in the actuarial profession, you are well ahead of the curve. Sports betting explained: How to bet on sports What area were you working in before you started your research in sports analytics, and how did you decide to focus on the betting markets? I have mainly worked in higher education, with a short stint in the actuarial profession.
While working with the Insurance and Pensions Supervisions Unit with the Maltese financial regulator MFSA , I was involved in collating industry stats, checking the adequacy of solvency reserves and preparing for the new insurance regulation. While watching a Euro match, Dr. Frank Neumann , a senior colleague was asking me questions about the betting markets. I couldn't answer most of them, but in a eureka moment I decided to test an idea revolving around applying financial techniques to the betting markets.
At that point I knew that my PhD would take a more sports betting focus rather than a traditional finance one. The current focus of my research is developing and testing a solvency framework for bookmakers. What are the fundamental similarities in what you were doing then and what you do now? In both financial and betting modelling; you decide a set of assumptions on which you build your model.
These make or break the model, so a lot of care needs to be made with respect to choosing, testing and updating these. The categories of experts working in both industries are also very similar. You find individuals who focus on the intricacies of a model to develop sophisticated models that provide an edge, others that focus on price movements, and more that focus on the quality of data.
Both fields are focused on measuring risk and finding value, but are there any aspects fundamentally different? A bet is after all a binary-option and hence can be classified as a derivative. Furthermore, I consider insurance and betting as basically the same, except for one key feature — 'insurable interest'. When purchasing insurance, one must have 'insurable interest', that is have something to lose, if an outcome occurs.
The concept is the opposite for a bet; a player of a particular team cannot purchase a bet on his team losing a match. A bet is made to win an amount while an insurance is made to place you in the same position should something occur. The concept is the opposite for a bet. A bet is made to win an amount, while an insurance is made to place you in the same position should something occur" That is, if I purchase a contract that pays me a sum on Queen's Elizabeth's death, I am betting.


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