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It is a valuable information which elements could be revised or amended. GDP is at or very near the end of its rise. As the current exuberance for equities gives way to gloom, the total value of the stock market should decline below its low. This display of selling pressure is compatible with the start of a larger stock market decline. For the period ending February 9, the two-week change in the RSI was minus 58 points, from a high of 86 on January 26 to a low of 28 on February 9.

Based on data that extend back to the late s, the next-closest reversal was a decline of 48 points over the same time span during the crash in Swift negative momentum shifts can either signal a brief correction in a bull market or the kick-off to a bear market. The pervasiveness of this response to the decline reveals that investors remain highly optimistic, maybe even perfectly primed for a bear market of extremely high degree.

Last month, EWFF discussed the big uptick of retail investors in the stock market in the form of a boom in new accounts at various online brokerage firms as well as the introduction of hour retail trading. This is classic, final-high behavior. The headlines in our collage and the rote bullish terminology suggest that the media is remarkably aligned with this crowd.

Last month, we also noted the entry of the millennials, who were formerly known for having a decided disinterest in stocks. But those three episodes were relatively short-lived. Boomers who managed to hang on were richly rewarded. The runners are at the starting line for a marathon version of the cited bear markets. As usual in markets, they are inadvertently facing the opposite direction of the race. One of the commonest actions of herders is to deny a new trend in its early stages.

Where do we find the pros now? In total agreement that the bull market is still marching on. And one strategist even increased his estimate for Financial herding is just too overwhelming for any such possibility to be considered.

There is no talk of a bear market, just an argument over whether the bottom has taken the shape of a V or will take the shape of a W by testing the February 9 low. The graph plots the results of a survey of consumers by the University of Michigan. Given the slim-to-non-existent savings of many eventual retirees, this attitude is understandable.

Last month, the survey even pushed to a year extreme of This show of resiliency is a bearish signal because the most recent survey was conducted as stocks experienced their sharp decline. This result is ironic as already precarious retirement prospects got hit hard in the first few days of last month. At this point, it is clear that most pension funds and their beneficiaries will get to these solutions the hard way. The levering up by fund managers and individual investors indicates that the damage will be widespread when prices fall and volatility spikes with a vengeance.

Heavy damages did not wait long to show up. The upward vault carried the volatility index to more than five standard deviations above its day daily average. Large Speculators in VIX futures were caught in a massive wrong-way bet. After amassing a record net-short position of , contracts in the fourth quarter of last year, an insane bet that was featured in both EWT and EWFF, Large Specs were forced to cover their entire bearish wager and subsequently moved to a net-long 85, contracts.

The near-term moves have been that violent, and it was just the beginning of the bear market. The volatility has done nothing to shake the bullish faithful. We use the past tense because the XIV was suspended from trading on February 15 and completely liquidated on February The breakneck speed of the reversal is instructive. In November , the featured forerunners had peaked weeks or even months earlier and they were all still months away from their ultimate fate at the end of the credit crises.

If you want to try making a killing being short in the collapse, make sure you are not overexposed. Make sure that if the system locks up for days or weeks, you will not be in a panic yourself. Continuing heavy exposure to financial derivatives may be one reason that share prices of major bank indexes failed to surpass their peaks. Ironically, the debris from the derivative blow-up during the financial crisis is, finally, mostly cleared away.

Most of those claims have been settled. Citigroup, one of the more aggressive derivatives players, is the last big bank holdout. The top graph on the chart shows a much more robust rise in the stock price of JPMorgan Chase. A more conservative approach to derivatives may have held it back in , as it failed to accompany the rest of the financials to new all-time highs at that time.

The form of its rise, however, suggests that it will encounter its fair share of financial fallout in the years ahead. The yield on the U. It is also used as a benchmark reference rate for other financial debt instruments, such as mortgages, student loans and credit cards, to name a just a few. This benchmark interest rate is now the highest since December Yet as shown on this next chart, investors in the junkiest of junk bonds, those rated Caa, remain as complacent as they have been for better part of the past year.

These bonds are issued by companies in the weakest financial condition, yet the average yield has held between 8. When yields break above this range, it will be a clear signal that the bear market is intensifying as investors dump their junk.

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