Betting advisory commodity prices
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Basically, commodities betting is a contract with a price and a time period to complete the bet. You will bet on a certain commodity by buying or selling them, hoping to make a profit when the price of the commodities fluctuates. Typically, if you make a commodities bet, you will not get the item bet on but roll it over or close them out to attempt to make a profit.
In futures commodity betting, there is more volatility potential in the fluctuations in the price of that commodity. The reason for this is that it is hard to gauge what the prices will be for a certain commodity in the future.
When there are changes in the environment of the market, investors will alter their position, and that, in turn, will have a significant impact on supply and demand, and that is what will determine the price of a commodity. The Commodity ETF ETF stands for exchange-traded fund, and a commodity ETF is that fund that you can bet on physical commodities like metals, natural resources gas and oil , and agricultural goods corn and wheat.
Typically a commodity ETF is for one commodity with it being stored or bet on with future contracts. Commodities Spread Betting Often, professional commodities brokers mainly focus on commodity spread betting, and you can do that as well. A spread bet is buying one commodity and selling the same one, or one that is similar, at the same time.
Commodity spread betting is usually less risky than buying or selling commodities. You multiply the number of points the commodity increased by your stake, how much you bet, to get your profit. On the other side of the coin, if the price decreases for the commodity, you will lose money for each point that the price goes down. An example of a commodity spread betting is if you buy corn in May and then sell wheat in May. When you sell a commodity, you are wagering that the commodity will go down in price so that you would sell and hope your bet is right and then buy it for less closing out to them make a profit.
Types of Commodities Spreads The main futures spreads are: Intra-market — This type of spread is also called a calendar spread and is buying and selling of the same commodity but in different months of the contract. An example of this spread would be buying corn in November and selling wheat in June.
Inter-market — This spread is the buying and selling of commodities that are not the same but are related. They are correlated commodities but a reason why one would be stronger than the other one. An example would be the buying of silver and then the selling of gold. Inter-exchange — This is the buying and selling of the same commodity but is traded on with exchange that is different.
So buying corn futures on one exchange and then selling corn on another exchange. How to Pick a Commodities Betting Broker Once you know you want to make commodities bets, whether futures or spread, you will need to use a commodities broker or a commodities betting site.
They are plentiful and easy to find, and in the United States alone, there are over 1, licensed commodities betting brokers. You should also be aware that commodities market operate limit systems. This means that you can be locked into a position, sometimes for days, whilst the market moves against you.
Your losses could be considerable in this situation. It might be wise to make a Controlled Risk Bet i. Hence, these types of investments are classified as high risk. Therefore betting on them should also be considered as high risk. The values of commodities can fall as well as rise, and you can therefore bet on both rises and falls. This means, however, that while big profits are possible big losses can also be made.
You should never commit yourself to a deal that is more than you can afford to lose, no matter how sure you are that, for example, world coffee prices will skyrocket! There are rules on how far in advance you can buy and therefore bet on each particular commodity. This is known as the forward period. It is mostly three months, but can be several years for some commodities.
Your financial bookmaker will tell you what commodity markets are currently available. To bet on commodities successfully you need to be well informed. Check back to find how the price of your chosen commodity has risen or fallen over the last few years — price changes are often cyclical.
Follow trends. Use the financial newspapers, magazines, newsletters and websites which we have already outlined. In general terms future market prices for commodities depend on : Future Demand : This is the single most important factor when trying to predict future commodity prices.
Try to anticipate this and hence anticipate whether the price for your chosen commodity will fall or rise, and how quickly or slowly. Demand can depend on factors such as season, taste, how fashionable or unfashionable a product becomes and new technologies which require larger supplies of certain commodities while making other commodities less sought after or even redundant.
Booms and Recessions : The nations of the world usually go through boom and recession on a cyclical basis. The important thing to remember is that commodity prices usually lag the peaks and troughs of booms and recessions, unlike share prices which usually precede them. Natural Disasters and Wars : These situations serve to restrict the supply of commodities, and hence force the price up. They are notoriously difficult to predict but note that, typically, a natural disaster occurring or mere rumour of a war can cause commodity prices to rise even if the supply of the commodity is not affected.
Exchange Rates : Most commodities are bought and sold worldwide in US dollars. If you are betting in any other currency a change in the exchange rate can affect the price independently of any other factor. Although commodity prices have tumbled from their highs, they remain substantially higher than at the start of this bull cycle, and with growing middle classes in emerging growth economies such as China, India and Brazil, secular demand for commodity goods is likely to remain elevated even in the face of global economic slowdown.
Trading Commodities Commodities have long been a favourite market amongst spread betters and short-term traders. However, as well as being susceptible to sizable moves, some commodities also behave repetitively at certain times of the year, which makes them especially popular among traders who follow seasonal strategies. One advantage of using a spreadbet to trade commodities is that although the underlying market is priced in US dollars, you are trading in pounds per point, so spread traders can eliminate the foreign exchange risk.
You can trade commodities in the spot market or in the futures market, where trades are contracted to take place at a certain date in the future, and the price of the contract will vary according to what the market believes the price will be at that time. Spread bets based on futures contracts will automatically close on the relevant settlement date. As with the indices there is no commission, although the provider will add a little extra onto the market spread but it is worth noting that quite a few commodities are relatively cheap to trade i.
One thing to keep in mind is that commodities have different trading and quoting hours from many other markets and also different tick sizes. Most commodity markets are still pit traded which in practice means that commodities such as soya beans, bean meal and bean oil trade from until ; pork bellies will trade from until ; coffee from to , and orange juice will trade from until no matter when the annual crop report is published.
The precious metals markets have slightly longer trading hours, in particular gold, which is available from until Copper is open from until , platinum from till and silver from until Nymex crude trades from There are all contained in the a reference book or pdf document given to you when you join.
For traders looking to speculate on short-term price movements, the way gold and oil prices tend to move makes them ideal vehicles for financial spread betting.
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