David Andolfatto serves as a Senior Vice President in the Research Division at the I first started looking into Bitcoin around Join us for a panel discussion with David Andolfatto of the St. of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Tether. Source: David Andolfatto via Crossref Metadata Search. Whither the Price of Bitcoin? Economic Synopses. | Journal article. BTC LITECOIN

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YODA CRYPTOCURRENCY

And the cost is that you're neglecting the demand volatility. You've got to fix supply and you've got a demand for money that could potentially behave very, very violently. And indeed, money demand we know can fluctuate violently in the short run. All you have to do is go and take a look at the Bitcoin price chart. The supply of Bitcoin is not changing when you saw those price fluctuations-- what that was just the demand for this stuff was gyrating wildly.

That also happens in times of financial crisis, crises like the one that we recently experienced. What did we see during the last financial crisis? We saw a flight to quality instruments like the U. These were deflationary episodes. The demand for money and Treasuries went up, interest rates and yields plummeted. We had a moderate deflation during that period.

To combat this type of demand volatility, wouldn't it be nice, at least in principle, if we could trust the stewards of this money supply like the Fed, if we could permit them to supply additional cash when the demand was very high to stabilize the purchasing power of the object?

Wouldn't it be nice if we could do that? You can't do that with Bitcoin, I guess, unless you program it. But you can't do that with gold. These are things that are relatively fixed supply in the short run. I've got a plot here of the purchasing power of currencies since I've got four currencies here.

I've normalized the purchasing power to in and I've plotted the yen, the euro, the U. Take a look at this bottom chart here. This is the purchasing power of the Zimbabwean dollar. And as you can see, the purchasing power just plummeted. It's basically went down to zero. That was the famous Zimbabwean hyperinflation under Robert Mugabe.

At the opposite extreme, we have Japan. We see the purchasing power of the yen since has remained more or less stable. And indeed, since about , the purchasing power of the yen has basically been rising modestly. So there's even been a moderate deflation in Japan, not very much but it's basically flat. And then in between, we see the experience of the euro in green and the U. We have adopted that, that's how we define price stability. And so you don't necessarily have to be an advocate of whether this line is better than this line.

The striking thing about those lines, in my view, is that they're relatively stable. They don't exhibit wild fluctuations. It's something you can predict. You can bet on. Something similar holds true for Bitcoin and Altcoin. Thus, while it is possible that an increase in the supply of Altcoin results in Bitcoin exchange-rate appreciation with respect to Altcoin, this need not be the case.

And if not, then an ever-expanding supply of Altcoin would keep the price of Bitcoin and, by extension, its market capitalization depressed relative to where it would have otherwise been. The figure suggests exactly this effect. The total value of Bitcoin has declined as a share of all cryptocurrencies, as its value with respect to other cryptocurrencies shows no particular trend. Consider now the bearish case for Bitcoin.

This outlook is based on the view that Bitcoin has no fundamental value and that sooner or later the market will recognize this fact. In our view, one can accept that Bitcoin trades above its fundamental value without claiming that its fundamental value is zero. In fact, many securities trade above what might be considered their fundamental value. Gold, for example, trades above its value as measured by its industrial applications.

The U. The premium some people are willing to pay for gold and the U. The market value of these objects would decline, but not fall to zero, should this premium suddenly vanish. What is the source of the fundamental value of Bitcoin?

Think about it this way. At its core, Bitcoin is a database management system. Database management systems can have a fundamental value if they are tailored to meet the needs of a given constituency. Bitcoin offers people a money storage and transfer system with two key properties: i permissionless access and ii decentralized database management.

The first property means that no one can prevent a user from sending any amount of Bitcoin from one account to another. The second property means that the protocol does not depend on the existence of a delegated authority to manage accounts and transfer funds. The fundamental demand for Bitcoin derives from the fact that there are at least some people who value these features.

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Vice President of St. Louis FED David Andolfatto on Central Banks, Gold \u0026 Bitcoin - Sept 16 2019

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